Further to the two most interesting articles by Joe Brownlie and Dick Sibley (VR, 18/25 April 2020, vol 186, pp 446-448, 462-463), the second article in particular created an interesting debate between myself, my daughter and her partner – both medical doctors, each with some seven years’ experience.
We all agreed with Brownlie and Sibley’s remark about under-resourcing of the NHS.
We also all agreed on the basic application of the ‘four pillars’ of disease management described; namely biosecurity, biocontainment, surveillance and resilience. Like the authors, one worries that some of the models being used by the epidemiologists are inaccurate, especially when based on quite difficult data. As commented, similar projections were used in the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease outbreak to underpin government policy that was subsequently shown to be mistaken. No doubt in time we will see if this was also the case here.
However, on the matter...